Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
