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New Yorkers will discover who will be their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who governs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to send armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The election has turned into an acrimonious face-off, marked by accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has outpaced his rival by significant margins across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby end to an race that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to voters' anger at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

However, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, achieve a surprising comeback win, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of considered, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani directly. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent elected, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in reality, few even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video surfaced appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a DSA gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd